Prior to the 2024 Presidential election, we conducted our End-of-Q3 Civil Construction Confidence Poll. Let’s take a look at the results and compare them to the previous quarter and the poll we ran this time last year.
Hi, I’m Taylor Maurer, Founder and Senior Managing Partner for Heavy Civil Resource Consultants.
We asked Civil Construction Professionals: After Q3, what is your outlook for the next four quarters in the civil construction market?
Here are the results:
- 22% felt that there would be strong growth
- 34% expected moderate growth
- 32% anticipated the market to stagnate
- 12% predicted the market would shrink
Now, let’s compare those results to the end of Second Quarter:
- 24% predicted strong growth after Q2, compared to 22% after Q3
- 42% predicted moderate growth last quarter, compared to 34% at the end of Q3
- 28% thought the market would stagnate after Q2, compared to 32% recently
- And only 6% thought the market would shrink after Q2, compared to 12% after Q3
Let’s compare the results from the end of Q3 last year:
- There was a drop of 2 percentage points from 24% in 2023 to 22% in 2024 for strong growth
- A 5-point reduction from 39% to 34% for moderate growth
- A 10-point increase in stagnation, the largest shift, from 22% to 32%
- A small reduction from 15% to 12% for the market shrinking
It is safe to say that our more recent poll showed an unfavorable shift in confidence in the civil construction market, with 56% expecting some sort of growth, compared to 66% expecting growth last year.
This poll was conducted a few weeks before the presidential election. In a recent poll asking construction professionals about their political orientation, 53% identified as Republicans, and 11% identified as Democrats.
Coupled with our recent poll results, which favored Donald Trump over Kamala Harris by more than three-to-one (74% to 24%) regarding who would invest more in infrastructure, we can expect a significant shift toward increased confidence in the civil construction market after Q1 (post-election results) and after Q2 (once Trump takes office).
Check out my post-election analysis video here to gain historical and analytical insight into how the second term of Donald Trump’s presidency might affect the infrastructure construction market.
If you are looking to secure top construction or engineering talent in this very competitive market please book a call with me to discuss some strategies on how to make your company and offer of employment more attractive to passive candidates.
