The recent presidential election delivered another tight race, with Donald Trump defeating Kamala Harris to secure the presidency. As the heavy civil construction industry assesses the implications of Trump’s return to the Oval Office, key questions arise about his policies’ potential impact on infrastructure development, labor supply, and market dynamics.
The Current Sentiment in the Civil Construction Sector
Pre-election polling conducted at the end of Q3 2024 revealed a mixed but generally optimistic outlook:
- 22% of respondents expected strong growth.
- 34% anticipated moderate growth.
- 32% predicted stagnation.
- 12% foresaw market contraction.
These results highlight cautious optimism in the sector, with Trump’s victory and recent Federal Reserve rate hikes suggesting potential confidence boosts.
The Infrastructure Funding Debate
Historically, Republican administrations have struggled to secure significant infrastructure funding compared to their Democratic counterparts. President Trump’s first term saw the proposal of a $1.5 trillion infrastructure plan, yet only $165 billion was secured. In contrast, President Biden’s $1.2 trillion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) established long-term funding commitments for critical projects that will carry over into Trump’s second term.
While Trump’s campaign rhetoric hinted at clawing back unspent funds from the IIJA and Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the bipartisan nature of infrastructure projects makes such a reversal politically challenging. Rail and transit initiatives, in particular, enjoy widespread support, making significant funding cuts unlikely.
Key Policy Concerns
Two critical Trump policies could pose challenges for the construction market:
- Tariffs on Imported Construction Materials
Trump’s tariff policies, particularly on Chinese imports, have historically affected the cost and availability of construction materials like steel, aluminum, and cement. China supplies 15–20% of these materials, and increased tariffs could pressure contractors’ profit margins. - Immigration and Labor Supply
Trump’s immigration policies, including mass deportation threats, raise concerns about workforce shortages. Undocumented workers constitute an estimated 15–23% of the U.S. construction labor force. Polls reveal that nearly 40% of construction professionals fear these policies could exacerbate the existing skilled labor deficit, identified as the top challenge by 59% of builders.
Looking Ahead
While many in the construction industry view Trump and the Republican Party as pro-business, challenges loom. His policies could exacerbate two significant constraints—rising material costs and labor shortages—already hindering growth in the infrastructure sector.
Stay Informed
To better understand these evolving dynamics, follow the upcoming Civil Construction Confidence Polls for post-election insights. For personalized guidance, book a free consultation to enhance your hiring strategy in the infrastructure and engineering markets.
Let us know your thoughts and predictions—what does Trump’s presidency mean for your business?
